In recent years, China is one of the huge drivers of the rapid growth of the global solar energy market. It is not only the world's largest demand country, but also the world's largest photovoltaic supply chain settlement. The photovoltaic supply chain runs from upstream to downstream, and more than 80% of the global supply is from within China.
In 2022, the Chinese market has entered a stage of parity and no subsidies. In the 14th Five-Year Plan, China also aims to reach 20% of renewable energy consumption by the end of 2025, 25% by 2030, and 1200GW of wind + solar cumulative installed capacity.
This year, the Chinese market is expected to have more than 80GW of photovoltaic power plant projects installed, and maintain a high growth rate. It is expected that the demand for photovoltaic modules in a single year will reach more than 170GW in 2025. Looking at the composition of China's photovoltaic demand this year, it is expected that 43GW of the 83GW demand will come from distributed projects, and 25GW of household photovoltaic projects will lead to a new high in the total distributed volume, which is expected to account for 52% of China's installed capacity. Last year was the first time in China's history that the proportion of distributed projects exceeded that of centralized ones. Not only was the growth trajectory of distributed projects obvious to all, but it also set an important milestone for distributed projects.
Despite this, the demand for 40GW of ground power station projects expected to be added this year is also a record high. As the energy storage policy is mainly focused on centralized projects, it is expected that the energy storage industry will also flourish under the fermenting demand this year. Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Xinjiang are the top five demand markets for ground-based photovoltaic projects. In addition, the first phase of 100GW of 400GW large-scale wind + solar projects in the desert has also started, injecting more imagination into the centralized energy storage market.
In 2022, the PV + Storage policy will be Reinforced
In line with the rapid growth of the photovoltaic market, China will begin to more actively promote the solar + storage policy in the pre-balance sheet market in 2021. Statistics up to August 2021 show that 20 provinces and cities in China have promulgated the solar + storage policy, requiring The newly built photovoltaic power station needs to support 5-20% of the energy storage, which can be divided into priority incentives and mandatory matching according to the strength of the policy. At that time, most provinces were mainly based on the soft policy of priority incentives, and the matching ratio was mostly 10%. With the passage of time to June 2022, in addition to more provinces also promulgating the light + storage policy, some provinces have also turned the preferential incentive policy into a mandatory package, and the proportion of the package has also increased, which fully demonstrates China's The determination to develop energy storage on the side of new energy power generation.
Energy storage demand under the centralized photovoltaic and solar + Storage policy in 2021
Recalling that China's installed photovoltaic capacity in 2021 is close to 55GW, according to the analysis data of InfoLink, the photovoltaic installed capacity of provinces with relevant solar + storage policies is 45GW, of which about 22GW is centralized, accounting for 48.4%. As for the energy storage part, the installed capacity in 2021 will be 2.4GW, of which the pre-table market accounts for nearly 80%, and the scale reaches 1.85GW. Moreover, the energy storage combined with photovoltaics in the pre-table market accounts for less than 30%. Therefore, , the market size of solar + storage in front of the table is only about 0.5GW.
Through the centralized photovoltaic installed capacity of each province in 2021 and the corresponding solar + storage policy, InfoLink estimates the demand in the solar + storage market in an ideal scenario. As shown in the table, the solar + storage scale in 2021 will be 1.38GW , there is a big gap with the actual installed capacity of 0.5GW. The main factors causing this result are: (1) China is in the early stage of energy storage development and policy optimization stage, the time difference between the policy introduction time and the construction period (2) Raw material prices soar Up, the supply of batteries is in short supply and so on. Even so, the scale of energy storage in 2021 will still grow by 100% compared to 2020. According to the calculation of the ideal scale of light + storage by InfoLink, the development of energy storage in China's pre-table market is worth looking forward to.
Energy storage demand under the centralized photovoltaic and solar + storage policy in 2022
In 2022, the world has a more active policy in promoting renewable energy-related policies. In addition, as the epidemic slows down, the market is more optimistic about this year's performance. InfoLink's analysis predicts that China's installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 83GW this year, an increase of more than 50% compared to 2021, while the photovoltaic installed capacity of provinces with relevant solar + storage policies will be 75GW, and the centralized type will be about 36GW, accounting for about 48%. %.
In the energy storage market, it is predicted that China's growth rate will also exceed 100% this year, reaching a scale of more than 5GW. The proportion of the market before the table remains high at about 75%, and the scale is close to 4GW. At the same time, according to the proportion of energy storage in the pre-balance sheet market and photovoltaics in 2021 is close to 30%, InfoLink is optimistic that the proportion will increase to more than 40% this year.
In addition, by forecasting the installed capacity of centralized photovoltaics in various provinces and the corresponding solar + storage policies again in 2022, InfoLink estimates the demand in the solar + storage market in an ideal scenario, and the scale reaches 3.9GW. Although the actual construction scale predicted above There is still a big gap between 2GW and the ideal scenario, but the annual growth rate has reached 300%, which not only shows that the policy has a significant improvement in the driving effect of the market, but also shows that the market still needs more time to buffer and deal with tougher policies. adapt.
China's 30.60 Dual-Carbon Target Road to Solar + Storage Growth Scale
In 2021 and 2022, China's photovoltaic market will grow from 55GW to 83GW, and the pre-balance sheet solar storage market will grow from 0.5GW to 2GW, while the ideal scenario based on policy estimates will grow from 1.4GW to 3.9GW.
Under the rapidly growing photovoltaic market in China, the supporting demand for energy storage will inevitably increase, and the follow-up policies for energy storage supporting both the central government and the provinces and cities will continue to be strengthened. The "Notice on Further Promoting the Participation of New Energy Storage in the Electricity Market and Dispatching Application" issued on June 7 this year allows energy storage to no longer cater to the supporting policies of solar + storage, but to participate in other auxiliary services independently. Thereby increasing the benefits and economic value of energy storage and stimulating the development of the energy storage industry. Therefore, with the rapid growth of the photovoltaic market and energy storage policies, InfoLink is optimistic that China's energy storage market will grow from 2.4 GWh in 2020 to 32 GWh in 2025, with a cumulative scale of close to 100 GWh and a compound growth rate of close to 70%. InfoLink will also Continue to track the challenges of market development and follow-up policy trends.
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